Recent reports have shown Israel’s willingness to strike Iran by Christmas. Iran is one of the most serious threats to stability in the Middle East and the world and the means and motive to strike Israel. American and Israeli intelligence agree that the Islamic regime in Iran will be able to complete a nuclear weapon within five years. They already have 1800 kg of uranium which is enough to build 1 or more bombs. This article examines the reasons why these statements are false and Israel will not strike.
1. Missiles:
Iran is dangerous and it could strike with its stash of missiles. Israel already saw what it was capable of during the Gaza Strip war in 2008/2009 and the Lebanese War in 2006. No one can predict Iran’s moves in response.
2. German proverb
According to a German proverb, attacks that are announced in advance do not actually occur. Why would Israel tell Iran a month ahead of time, knowing the latter could strike at them before? It just does not make sense.
3. Support?
The Diplomat examines Barack Obama’s need for support from Evangelical and Jewish supporters in his country. This however is still up in the air as there is no guarantee of support for a unilateral attack.
4. Ploy:
This also could be a ploy to scare Iran. Israel may try to scare the government into stopping the nuclear program. Highly unlikely, but worth a try.
5. Management going crazy:
Israel has used this tactic before. They have acted as if they were going crazy. They want Iran to think that they are not listening to the United States and that they want to bomb Iran. This may be the reason why no one is taking them seriously.
6. U.S consent:
The United States has not yet positioned its stance on the supposed “Christmas attack”. Israel has not done anything or has not attacked anyone without US approval and consent since
1956.
7. Israel won’t go alone:
Israel will feel crippled trying to fight Iran alone like in 1974. They will need unlimited resources from the United States which has not been made mention of. A unilateral Israeli attack on Iran, without U.S. consent would likely have severe consequences as well.
8. Geography:
Israel is a small country compared to Iran. Iran’s area is 1648000 km2, while Israel is only 20700 km^2. The nuclear programs are spread out and the nation has a closed strait which Israel will need to go through. It will be hard to say that Israel is willing to terrain such a risk and risk thousands of loses.
9. Meir Dagan:
The Diplomat reported that the head of Massad, Meir Dagan is against the move. The move to invade Iran may pose a political risk to Netanyahu and Barak, which they are considering.
10. Poor Western Journalism:
The Jewish Tribune believes that it is poor Western Journalism and rubbish to think that Israel would attack Iran.
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